What is being done to respond to the rise of chronic diseases and multi-morbidity in Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia?

Although countries in central and eastern Europe (CEE) have relatively younger populations compared to the West, their populations are often affected by higher prevalence of chronic conditions and multi-morbidity and this burden will likely increase as their populations age. Relatively little is known about how these countries cater to the needs of complex patients. This Perspective piece identifies key initiatives to improve coordination of care in Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia, including some pioneering and far-reaching approaches. Unfortunately, some of them have failed to be implemented, but a recent strategic commitment to care coordination in some of these countries and the dedication to rebuilding stronger health systems after the COVID-19 pandemic offer an opportunity to take stock of these past and ongoing experiences and push for more progress in this area.

Socioeconomically-deprived patients suffer hip fractures at a younger age and require more hospital admissions, but early mortality risk is unchanged: The IMPACT Deprivation Study.

INTRODUCTION: Socioeconomic deprivation is associated with multi-morbidity and frailty, but influence on hip fracture outcomes is poorly understood. The primary aim was to investigate the association between deprivation and mortality, and secondary aims were to assess the effects on: (i) age at presentation; (ii) inpatient outcomes, and (iii) post-discharge outcomes. METHOD: This cohort study included all patients aged >50 years admitted with a hip fracture to a high-volume centre between 01 March 2020 and 20 November 2021. Data were collected contemporaneously by specialist auditors and underwent validation using live health records after 180 days follow-up. Variables were demographics including Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation, injury and management factors, and outcome measures including length of stay, discharge destination, readmission, and mortality status at 180 days. RESULTS: There were 1822 patients of which 1306/1822 (72%) were female. Deprivation was independently associated with younger age at hip fracture, demonstrating a linear correlation with each deprivation level. The overall mean age was 80.7 years (range 50-102), with the mean age in the most deprived group being 77.2 years (95% CI; 75.7-78.7) versus 82.8 years (95% CI; 82.0-83.5) in the least deprived. Multivariate logistic regression showed no association between deprivation and 30- or 180-day mortality risk. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated no difference between the most deprived versus least deprived (log-rank, p = 0.854). Deprivation had no influence on length of stay, discharge destination, or COVID-19 status, but deprived patients had an increased risk of readmission (OR 1.63, 95% CI [1.18-2.24]; p = 0.003). CONCLUSION: Deprivation showed no linear correlation with early mortality risk (within 180 days of injury), but it was associated with an earlier age at presentation (the most deprived sustained a hip fracture 5.6 years earlier than the least deprived) which may impact overall life expectancy. More deprived patients were more likely to require further acute hospital admissions.

Health Priorities of Multi-Morbid Ambulatory Patients in New York City During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Qualitative Analysis.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, adults with chronic conditions delayed or avoided seeking preventative and general medical care, leading to adverse consequences for morbidity and mortality. In order to bring patients back into care, we, in this qualitative study, sought to understand the foremost health-related needs of our multi-morbid ambulatory patients to inform future outreach interventions. Via a telephone-based survey of our high-risk patients, defined using a validated EPIC risk model for hospitalization and ED visits, we surveyed 214 participants an open-ended question, "What is your top health concern that you would like to speak with a doctor or nurse about". We found 4 major themes: 1) primary care matters, 2) disruptions in health care, 3) COVID-19's impact on physical and mental health, and 4) amplified social vulnerabilities. Our results suggest that interventions that reduce barriers to preventative services and disruptions to healthcare delivery are needed.

Frailty in Elderly Patients with Covid-19: A Narrative Review.

Introduction: The SARS CoV-2 pandemic still generates a very high number of affected patients and a significant mortality rate. It is essential to establish objective criteria to stratify COVID-19 death risk. Frailty has been identified as a potential determinant of increased vulnerability in older adults affected by COVID-19, because it may suggest alterations of physical performance and functional autonomy. Methods: We have conducted a narrative review of the literature on the evidences regarding COVID-19 and the frailty condition. Thirteen observational studies were included. Conclusion: Data emerging from the studies indicate that older COVID-19 patients with a frailty condition have an increased risk of mortality compared with non-frail patients, and this association is independent of other clinical and demographic factors. A frailty evaluation is required to help clinicians to better stratify the overall risk of death for older patients with COVID-19.

Incident atrial fibrillation and its risk prediction in patients developing COVID-19: A machine learning based algorithm approach.

BACKGROUND: The elderly multi-morbid patient is at high risk of adverse outcomes with COVID-19 complications, and in the general population, the development of incident AF is associated with worse outcomes in such patients. There is therefore the need to identify those patients with COVID-19 who are at highest risk of developing incident AF. We therefore investigated incident AF risks in a large prospective population of elderly patients with/without incident COVID-19 cases and baseline cardiovascular/non-cardiovascular multi-morbidities. We used two approaches: main effect modeling and secondly, a machine-learning (ML) approach, accounting for the complex dynamic relationships among comorbidity variables. METHODS: We studied a prospective elderly US cohort of 280,592 patients from medical databases in an 8-month investigation of with/without newly incident COVID19 cases. Incident AF outcomes were examined in relationship to diverse multi-morbid conditions, COVID-19 status and demographic variables, with ML accounting for the dynamic nature of changing multimorbidity risk factors. RESULTS: Multi-morbidity contributed to the onset of confirmed COVID-19 cases with cognitive impairment (OR 1.69; 95%CI 1.52-1.88), anemia (OR 1.41; 95%CI 1.32-1.50), diabetes mellitus (OR 1.35; 95%CI 1.27-1.44) and vascular disease (OR 1.30; 95%CI 1.21-1.39) having the highest associations. A main effect model (C-index value 0.718) showed that COVID-19 had the highest association with incident AF cases (OR 3.12; 95%CI 2.61-3.710, followed by congestive heart failure (1.72; 95%CI 1.50-1.96), then coronary artery disease (OR 1.43; 95%CI 1.27-1.60) and valvular disease (1.42; 95%CI 1.26-1.60). The ML algorithm demonstrated improved discriminatory validity incrementally over the statistical main effect model (training: C-index 0.729, 95%CI 0.718-0.740; validation: C-index 0.704, 95%CI 0.687-0.72). Calibration of the ML based formulation was satisfactory and better than the main-effect model. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the clinical utility for the ML based formulation was better than the 'treat all' strategy and the main effect model. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 status has major implications for incident AF in a cohort with diverse cardiovascular/non-cardiovascular multi-morbidities. Our ML approach accounting for dynamic multimorbidity changes had good prediction for new onset AF amongst incident COVID19 cases.